Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Predictions for the November 4 election

Folks, I'm hopelessly optimistic sometimes. Hopelessly. To prove it, I'm going to make predictions for this election this year. They're pretty stellar numbers that I'm predicting, but I offer you my predictions with a caveat: in order to be good at predicting an outcome, you need to be as neutral and as non-partisan as is possible. Considering that I'm not at all neutral or non-partisan, I'm useless at this.

That said:

Obama 402 electoral votes
McCain 136 electoral votes

Democrats net +30 seats in the House

Gubernatorial races: the only change of party is in Missouri—Republican to Democrat.

Democratic pickups in the Senate: New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina and Minnesota. Georgia will go to a runoff, which the Republicans will unfortunately win. Kentucky will be narrow, but the Republicans will keep it.

Republican pickups in the Senate: none.

The states I figure for Obama's 402 electoral votes:

the Kerry states (252)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Omaha, Nebraska (1)
North Dakota (3)
Montana (3)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)

Possible surprise pickups that Obama could pull:

Arizona (10)
Alaska (3)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
West Virginia (5)

...but don't count on those.

Okay, folks: always look on the sunny side. And, if you haven't yet, GET TO THE POLLS RIGHT NOW. Democracy, and civilization itself, depend on it. (And no, I'm not exaggerating here for any kind of effect.)

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Conservatives don't want you to vote.

Well, no, of course they do. They wouldn't advocate voter suppression—not openly, of course.

Their strategy is an erosion of your rights. Remember that.

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Obama trails by less than 3% in Alaska

I originally figured Alaska was going to be close and a likely Democratic pickup this year, but after Palin made her way onto the Republican ticket, I assumed that couldn't happen. But now it looks like it might. Hayes Research has the McCain/Palin ticket leading Alaska polls 46.6% to 43.9% for Obama/Biden.

Odds are still better for McCain to win Alaska, and it's not like its three electoral votes are likely to swing the election one way or another, but what a thumb in the eye that would be for McCain and especially for Palin!

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Landslide for Obama in Dixville Notch

Okay, so the first election results are in from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, as usual, where 100% turnout is the rule and the polls are closed soon after midnight on Election Day. It looks like a landslide for Barack Obama in Dixville Notch, with Obama securing 15 votes, John McCain 6. In nearby hamlet Hart's Location, New Hampshire, Obama beat McCain 17-10, with Ron Paul snaring 2 votes.

If these results continue throughout the country on Election Day, Barack Obama will win an historic 64% of the nation's popular vote, with John McCain getting 32% and Ron Paul 4%, which will likely translate into something like 530 electoral votes for Obama. So, yeah, it's a good start. Let's keep it up!

Of course, it's not like Dixville Notch is some sort of historic predictor of how presidential elections will turn out. In fact, it hasn't gone for a Democrat since Hubert Humphrey in 1968. The fact that Dixville Notch went Democratic this year probably says more about the way New Hampshire is changing than it does about America's attitude right now. Still, it's kind of nice it's going Democratic this year, isn't it?

2004 results: Bush 19, Kerry 7
2000: Bush 21, Gore 5
1996: Dole 18, Clinton 8
1992: Bush 15, Perot 8, Clinton 2
1988: Bush 34, Dukakis 3