Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Predictions for the November 4 election

Folks, I'm hopelessly optimistic sometimes. Hopelessly. To prove it, I'm going to make predictions for this election this year. They're pretty stellar numbers that I'm predicting, but I offer you my predictions with a caveat: in order to be good at predicting an outcome, you need to be as neutral and as non-partisan as is possible. Considering that I'm not at all neutral or non-partisan, I'm useless at this.

That said:

Obama 402 electoral votes
McCain 136 electoral votes

Democrats net +30 seats in the House

Gubernatorial races: the only change of party is in Missouri—Republican to Democrat.

Democratic pickups in the Senate: New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina and Minnesota. Georgia will go to a runoff, which the Republicans will unfortunately win. Kentucky will be narrow, but the Republicans will keep it.

Republican pickups in the Senate: none.

The states I figure for Obama's 402 electoral votes:

the Kerry states (252)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)
Omaha, Nebraska (1)
North Dakota (3)
Montana (3)
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)


Possible surprise pickups that Obama could pull:

Arizona (10)
Alaska (3)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
West Virginia (5)

...but don't count on those.

Okay, folks: always look on the sunny side. And, if you haven't yet, GET TO THE POLLS RIGHT NOW. Democracy, and civilization itself, depend on it. (And no, I'm not exaggerating here for any kind of effect.)

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1 Comments:

At Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 7:35:00 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We can finally take a deep breath here Kurt. The national nightmare is over. We can finally look ahead.
It sure feels good.
Thanks for all of your written contributions.

 

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